As Venezuela’s 28 July presidential election approaches, expectations are growing. After two and a half decades of Chavista rule, the possibility of political change is palpable. In the midst of uncertainty and in a nation where political and social dynamics have been marked by polarisation in recent years, everyone is imagining their own electoral scenario. Of the 10 declared candidates, only two have significant electoral muscle: Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power for 11 years, and Edmundo González Urrutia, the Venezuelan opposition’s presidential candidate, who was chosen by the Plataforma Unitaria Democrática (PUD) following María Corina Machado’s disqualification from the race. Machado is the leader of the political party Vente Venezuela (which advocates economic liberalism, a minimal state, ‘popular capitalism’ and conservatism) and is mobilising popular discontent in favour of González Urrutia.

So far, polls have shown particularly disparate results in terms of electoral preference. Some reflect an advantage of between 15 and 40 points for the opposition candidate over the president. Others, presented by Maduro himself – thought to be one of the most unpopular presidents in Latin America – give him 55 per cent support compared to 22 per cent for González Urrutia. One of the most recent polls, from mid-June, conducted by the Centre for Politics and Government at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), projects around 7 million votes for the opposition candidate and 4.7 million for the current president, though Maduro’s numbers have been climbing in recent weeks. However, the real numbers are on the streets and Venezuelans will make their intentions clear at the ballot box.

Samuel Contreras, 45, supported Hugo Chávez, then his successor Maduro, and plans to do the same in this election. He was a farm labourer and grew vegetables for distribution to small towns in the northern Venezuelan state of Miranda. Forced to give up farming due to the cost of inputs, he now sells groceries in a small store. “First there was a shortage of fertiliser, then there were no seeds. Now everything is available but you can’t buy it because the sanctions [specifically those on oil and mining] have driven prices through the roof. I know that in another Maduro government [the sanctions] will be lifted and we will be able to have credit to do everything and live well,” he says.

Contreras’ family is among the 74 per cent of Venezuelan households that, according to the Venezuelan Centre for Agri-Food Studies, receive at least one of the cash benefits from the Maduro government’s 11 social assistance programmes. Contreras receives 1,278 bolivars a month (US$34) from two separate voucher systems. Two other people in his household receive the same amount.

“With Maduro, even though it’s with the vouchers, we can afford a piece of chicken. Right now we’re poor but if someone new comes and takes away our benefits, how much poorer are we going to be? Our lives will be even more in ruins. It’s better to stick with something that you know than try out something risky,” he tells Equal Times.

For other Venezuelans, by contrast, the solution to the crisis in the country, whose economy has contracted by 75 per cent in ten years (in part due to the impact of Washington’s economic sanctions, in place since 2017), is a change of power. Juliet Coello (not her real name) is a former civil servant and accountant. At 53, just two years away from retirement and, in theory, being able to live on her pension, she takes care of children informally in her home and sells cakes to make extra money to make ends meet. She spent more travelling to her office than she earned.

“A new president with a vision for the future is what we need, and that person is Edmundo. We need someone capable of stabilising our economy so we can return to being a productive country with job opportunities for us professionals, so that we can apply the knowledge we’ve acquired in jobs in our field and not in other trades. So that no one has to leave,” she says.

Coello is resolved to give González Urrutia her vote, although she says that she will not go out on the streets to show her support for him at election campaign events. She even refrains from publishing posts about the opposition candidate via her WhatsApp or other social networks for fear that expressing herself could have repercussions for her or her family.

Her fears are not unfounded. Last May, Maduro’s government authorities arrested a citizen who spoke at one of Corina Machado’s campaign rallies and have even temporarily closed and fined 16 establishments (hotels and restaurants) that have provided services to her, to González Urrutia and to his team when they tour the interior of Venezuela. The data was released by the organisation Acceso a la Justicia, which has monitored the PUD’s campaign tours.

So far in 2024, at least 14 leaders of Vente Venezuela have been detained for political reasons. Six others from Corina Machado’s inner circle have taken refuge in the Argentine embassy in Caracas due to an arrest warrant issued by the Public Ministry.

Despite the threat of reprisals, 75 per cent of Venezuelans say they will participate in the presidential elections, according to the most recent polls by Datincorp, which in May published a study conducted in the 17 departments that account for 90 per cent of the Venezuelan electorate. The study found that as many as 80 per cent of the population desire political change.

Carmen Beatriz Fernández, a political consultant specialising in electoral campaigns, believes that Maduro’s actions are meant to “demobilise [opposition voters] and instil fear, without a doubt. But this method can also backfire and foster more and more rejection. People are increasingly infuriated and have reached the end of their endurance level”.

According to Mirla Pérez, a Venezuelan sociologist from the Centro de Investigaciones Populares and professor at the Universidad Central de Venezuela, citizens’ hope for change currently far outweighs the fear that the system may be generating. In her opinion, this represents a significant challenge for Maduro.

“Fear is not stopping Venezuelans, it’s making them stronger. They feel that they have an alternative and they are organising themselves according to that alternative. That’s why we are seeing a very mobilised population trying to find a place to organise, not only to participate in electoral spaces, but also to support the electoral system as a whole,” says Pérez.

Organisational spaces and strategies, from ‘Bolivarian Rage’ to trade unions

Leaders of the governing party, who have declared that they will win “by hook or by crook”, are preparing the rank and file to apply the “1x10” electoral strategy, in which a party supporter finds ten voters to watch over on election day to ensure they give their vote to Maduro. The government has also activated the so-called ‘Bolivarian Fury’, a social control plan involving representatives of the “civic, military and police union”.

NGOs such as Laboratorio de Paz, dedicated to studying non-violent conflict resolution with a human rights approach, have pointed out that this plan aims to limit spaces for citizens to organise themselves. This includes workplaces, where members of the governing party have called for the plan to be applied in the wake of various demonstrations over the last year – public workers in the health and education sectors are calling for the resignation of the leftist ruler, who has maintained their monthly salary at US$3.50.

According to political consultant Beatriz Fernández, while they may not have a high impact with voters, trade unions have an important leadership role to play in this collective organisation by fostering debate and discussion in their branches and institutional spaces.

“The Venezuelan union movement can make an important contribution to the fight to rescue democracy without neglecting demands such as the reconstruction of decent salaries, wages and pensions, decent work, respect for collective agreements and freedom of political prisoners within the framework of the claim for compliance with the recommendations of the ILO Commission of Inquiry,” reads an article written by Marino Alvarado, legal enforceability coordinator of the NGO Provea.

Earlier this year, the International Trade Union Confederation’s (ITUC) Global Rights Index, which evaluates compliance with collective labour rights (internationally recognised by governments and employers), singled out Venezuela as one of the countries whose rating had worsened. The Index states that “arbitrary arrests and prosecutions of unionists, intended to muzzle the independent trade union movement, were commonplace”. According to the ITUC, “countries with the rating of 5 [including Venezuela] are the worst countries in the world to work in. While the legislation may spell out certain rights, workers have effectively no access to these rights and are therefore exposed to autocratic regimes and unfair labour practices”.

Word of mouth in the face of censorship

While the media is key to electoral processes, the traditional media architecture in Venezuela is subservient to the Maduro government. State censorship and self-censorship by private media restricts access to pluralistic information about the presidential candidates, which in turn impacts on the electorate’s decision-making.

In the countdown to the election, the media landscape remains complex, despite the fact that the main actors, the ruling party and the opposition (grouped in the PUD), signed an agreement on electoral guarantees in Barbados to promote ‘balance’ in the media and ensure “equal access for all candidates,” as well as public spaces under state administration.

The Instituto de Investigaciones de la Comunicación reports that 13 out of 22 nationwide television channels are used for ideological and propaganda purposes. To circumvent this state control, many Venezuelans have migrated to web portals for information. But according to the NGO Espacio Público, 60 of the country’s 100 digital media outlets are blocked by the National Telecommunications Commission (CONATEL), a regulatory body for the sector. In the face of this media blackout, many campaigns are turning to an old strategy: face to face contact.

“The difficulties of large-scale communication are clear because of the communication hegemony. The opposition is campaigning in the places furthest away from the cities, which are some of the most analogue as well. In these places, the social network is face to face contact. So these are becoming very old-fashioned campaigns but with the ability to make the candidate’s route or itinerary accessible through these social networks,” explains Beatriz Fernández, who is also a professor of political communication at the University of Navarra in Spain.

According to the Centro de Estudios Populares, citizens get their information about the candidates’ governing proposals and activities from WhatsApp and Facebook, the most widely used networks at the community level. This shapes their voting intentions, leading them, for example, towards the opposition represented by Machado.

As Beatriz Fernández explains, people see María Corina Machado at a campaign event, or see an advert, and send a message to their family WhatsApp group. From there, the information spreads through the neighbourhood or town, which “generates important virality that is organic and very similar to how things went viral before we entered the logic of the digital era”.