On 16 August 2024, the Thai parliament elected 38-year-old Paetongtarn ‘Ing’ Shinawatra to the post of prime minister. Paetongtarn has led the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party, Thailand’s second-largest party, since 2023. She is the daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, a prominent and controversial figure in Thai politics.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s appointment may, at first sight, be seen as a “breath of fresh air” and a step towards greater democracy. This perception is partly explained by a recent institutional change. The senators appointed in 2019 by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) completed their term in June 2024. The NCPO was the governing body of the military junta that ruled from 2014 to 2023, installed following a coup d’état. Under the current constitution, the new senators no longer have the right to vote to elect the prime minister.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s accession to power has not, however, marked the end of the political turmoil in Thailand, a country long marred by chronic unrest.

From hope to disillusionment: a year of political turbulence

14 May 2023 marked a turning point in Thailand’s political history. Rising from the ashes of the Future Forward party, dissolved three years earlier, the reformist party Kao Klai (Move Forward) took many by surprise, achieving a significant victory, winning more than 14 million votes in the legislative elections. This unexpected outcome rekindled hopes for real democratic change in the country and propelled the very popular party leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, to the position of potential prime minister.

This democratic momentum, however, was soon hampered by the power structures in place. Despite its popularity, Kao Klai faced opposition from conservative parties and the 250 senators appointed in 2019 by the military junta, under the direct influence of putschist generals Prayut Chan-o-cha and Prawit Wongsuwan.

The party failed to form a majority in parliament and was eventually forced into opposition, despite its victory at the polls.

On 5 September 2023, parliament elected Srettha Thavisin, a businessman and member of the Pheu Thai party, as prime minister. His election was the result of a deal between Pheu Thai and the pro-military and pro-monarchist factions, contrary to the commitments made by the party during the election campaign.

During its year in office, Pheu Thai faced a great deal of criticism, which has been reflected in its falling popularity in the polls. The party achieved few political advances, with the notable exception of legalising same-sex marriage in December 2023.

On 7 August 2024, Thailand’s Constitutional Court, the independence of which is often called into question, ordered the dissolution of the Kao Klai party. The decision was driven by the party’s call for the reform of section 112 of the Criminal Code referring to the crime of lèse-majesté, during the campaign for the 2023 legislative elections.

The Court found that the proposed reform posed a threat to Thailand’s political system, in which the King officially holds the position of head of state. As a result of this ruling, the party leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, and several other senior officials, were banned from political activity for 10 years.

A week later, on 14 August, it was Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s turn to be dismissed by the same Constitutional Court. This time, the decision was prompted by allegations of serious breaches of ethics, in particular the appointment to his cabinet of a legislator previously jailed for corruption.

Political bargaining for the return of the Shinawatra dynasty

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s election consolidates the hold on power of the Shinawatra family, a political dynasty that has profoundly marked Thailand’s recent history. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, prime minister from 2001 to 2006, was overthrown by a military coup and was forced into exile until 2023. Her uncle, Somchai Wongsawat, briefly held the post in 2008 before being dismissed by the Constitutional Court for electoral fraud. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, prime minister from 2011 to 2014, met a similar fate to Thaksin. Ousted by another coup d’état, she has since been living in exile in Dubai.

The history of the Shinawatras illustrates the tensions running through the country. While their populist policies have long enabled them to secure the support of the working classes, particularly in rural areas, they have also faced accusations of corruption, nepotism and excessive concentration of power, amongst others.

The return of Thaksin Shinawatra from exile in August 2023 appears to have set the stage for a major political deal. Although sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption and abuse of power, his sentence was swiftly commuted by the King of Thailand to one year, just days after his return from exile.

Thaksin did not spend a single night in prison, having been transferred to a VIP room in a police hospital after complaining of health problems. The mystery surrounding his prolonged hospitalisation, his early release on parole after just one year, and the recent royal pardon that shortened his parole by two weeks all suggest that a backroom deal was struck with the conservative establishment.

Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s rise to power confirms the alliance between Pheu Thai and the conservative and pro-military parties. But the long-term coherence and stability of this coalition are questionable. And the risk that Paetongtarn may suffer the same fate as other members of her family who have exercised power is not insignificant.

Challenges facing the new government

The new prime minister, who has little experience in politics, has inherited a complex economic and political situation. In addition to Thailand’s economic downturn, she is also grappling with criticism over a number of campaign pledges.

A case in point is the flagship policy of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin: the introduction of a digital wallet. Under the scheme, Thais aged 16 and over would receive a one-off handout of 10,000 baht (€260) in digital currency. The government is, however, considering changes to the policy in the coming months, to protect the new prime minister from possible legal repercussions. This populist policy is strongly contested, especially by the central bank, due to its reliance on public finances.

The National Anti-Corruption Commission has also issued a warning that the digital wallet could lead to increased corruption, and the government could be held responsible for negligence, in the same way as the Rice Pledge was used against Yingluck.

On the political front, the new government faces the major challenge of striking a delicate balance between the various factions comprising the ruling coalition. The unprecedented alliance between the Pheu Thai party and its former conservative and pro-military rivals raises questions as to the government’s ability to bring about substantial reform.

Despite the alliance, the full support of these parties is not assured, nor is that of conservative voters. This puts Paetongtarn Shinawatra in a precarious position. She risks criticism from all sides, which could compromise her ability to govern effectively.

The next legislative elections are due to take place in three years. Current popular discontent with Pheu Thai does not augur victory. The party will have to rival other conservative parties, including Bhumjaithai (Thai Pride Party), an increasingly powerful force in Thai politics, as evidenced in June 2024 by the election of 150 out of 250 senators close to this party via a complex system in which the general public does not participate.

While Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai may not enjoy popular support, they can rely on the ‘baan yaai’ (the ‘power houses’). These networks of influence, consisting of rich and powerful families, dominate regional and provincial politics through a system of patronage and cronyism. The ‘baan yai’ system continues to play a crucial role in favour of conservative parties.

In addition, the new Prachachon (People’s Party), made up of former members of the disbanded Kao Klai, looks set to constitute a forceful opposition within parliament. With 143 MPs, this party, led by 37-year-old entrepreneur Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, intends to pursue the reformist agenda that won over a large part of the electorate in 2023.

Uncertain times ahead for Thailand’s democracy

The election of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, despite a degree of generational change, is in keeping with a political system dominated by powerful political dynasties and the military-royalist establishment.

The use of judicial institutions and oversight bodies such as the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to suppress pro-reform voices raises serious questions as to the independence of these institutions and the stability of the rule of law in Thailand. The message is clear: far-reaching reforms will not be tolerated, and the popular vote can be circumvented by institutional power.

The resilience shown by the advocates of reform, symbolised by the famous French values of ‘Liberty, Equality, Fraternity’ emblazoned on the t-shirts of the new People’s Party, shows the determination of its leaders to carry forward the political struggle for the democratisation of Thailand. Yet there appears to be no end in sight to the vicious cycle as 44 MPs who previously belonged to the Kao Klai party, some of whom are currently members of the new People’s Party, are under investigation and are likely to be banned from political office.

Despite the glimmers of hope, the future of democracy in Thailand remains uncertain. In the absence of reforms to the political and judicial institutions, the country is in danger of remaining caught in a cycle of political and economic crises.